The Suncoast has a wealth of bays, rivers, and inland waters that define our region and affect the quality of life in Charlotte, DeSoto, Manatee, and Sarasota counties. People in our region have a common interest in identifying the threats from rising seas and the opportunities for ensuring that shorelines and inland areas are resilient now and in the future.

The Patterson Foundation strengthens the efforts of people, organizations, and communities by focusing on issues that address common aspirations and foster wide participation. Rising water levels have the potential to significantly impact not only our world but also our local communities.

Through this initiative, The Patterson Foundation connected with experts and identified the efforts underway to understand the effects of higher waters.

As it learned from their research and experience, The Patterson Foundation shared its findings in various ways, including the creation of a repository of science-based, easily accessible data on rising water levels in Charlotte, DeSoto, Manatee, and Sarasota counties. This resource library includes charts, maps, and other resources that clearly and thoroughly illustrate the current and projected impact of higher waters on our shores.

Within each of The Patterson Foundation’s diverse initiatives, one will find a consistent thread of efforts working toward outcomes that strengthen opportunities for people to thrive.

The Patterson Foundation created its Higher Waters initiative to explore and understand how the rising levels of our gulf, bays, rivers, and inland waters could significantly alter our coastlines and landscapes — and, therefore, our quality of life.

In September 2022, Hurricane Ian landed in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, leaving much destruction and damage behind and impacting millions of people directly and indirectly.

Hurricane Ian’s impact reaffirmed our work in this space but also served as an important reminder of how natural disasters beyond rising water levels affect our Suncoast region. Near Hurricane Ian’s one-year anniversary, TPF evolved its Higher Waters: Suncoast Quality of Life initiative to Community Preparedness, Recovery, and Resiliency to reflect a transition of focus to exploring how our community navigates disaster preparedness, recovery, and resiliency.

Capitalizing on ongoing efforts and conversations to learn from Hurricane Ian to mitigate, adapt to, and recover from disasters, this initiative will connect and collaborate with our communities to strengthen three distinct disaster focus areas: Preparedness, Recovery, and Resiliency.

Yes. Water levels have risen – and are rising – globally, in the United States, and in Florida. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOOA), our sea level has risen over the past century, with an increased rate in recent decades. In 2020, the global sea level was 3.6 inches (91.3 millimeters) above the 1993 average — the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993–present).

In the waters near Charlotte, DeSoto, Manatee, and Sarasota counties, satellite-based measurements have shown a steady increase in local sea level since 1950 — about 1.2 inches (30.5 millimeters) every ten years. Rising seas can produce coastal flooding that impacts other bodies of water located inland.

Scientists at the Sarasota Bay Estuary Program (SBEP) have studied sea-level rise projections and applied them to our region's waters. The SBEP uses these measurements for the time between 2020 and 2050: 9 inches and 14 inches. The 9 inches is based on the "best-fit equation for the last 20 years of data at the St. Petersburg water-level gauge, extrapolated to 2050 from a start in 2020."

In other words, the Estuary Program's scientists expect 8 to 9 more inches of sea-level rise by 2050, on top of the approximately 6 inches of rise recorded between 2000 and 2020.

Our waters, including our seas, rivers, creeks, and lakes, are rising for several reasons.

• Climate: Rising air and water temperatures are melting glaciers and ice sheets, thus increasing water levels.
• High Tides & King Tides: Tides are caused by the moon’s gravitational pull, causing it to pull the waters towards it onshore. The stronger the gravitational force, the stronger the tide. During high tides, water from the sea comes onshore and floods nearby low-lying areas, causing “nuisance flooding.” Similarly, when tides are higher than usual, they are called king tides (also known as sunny day floods) and can cause flooding too.
• Rain: Rain intensity has increased as global and local air temperatures have risen.
• Excessive Heat: Excessive heat can increase extreme rainfall.
• Storm Surges: Hurricanes and other strong storms can force water to surge over land, causing floods and often significant damage to infrastructure and buildings. Storm-related surges will come on top of rising water levels, compounding the potential for severe damage.

Higher waters affect us all, whether we live on the coast or inland. Those who live inland can experience flooding due to storm surges and rainfall, which can be exacerbated by drainage-system failures triggered by sea-water inundation.

Higher waters impact all of us, indirectly and directly, whether we live near the coast or inland. Here are some ways it affects people, organizations, and communities:

Arts, Culture, & Recreation

• Historical and cultural resources are not only a legacy of the past but significant sources of our tourist economy. These sites can be vulnerable to flooding and higher waters.
• Sea-level rise also affects our beaches since it causes coastal erosion and requires beaches to be renourished with sand.
• Public and open spaces for recreation are essential to help communities thrive. Flooding impacts our ability to do so in our parks and other areas.

Economy

• Service, retail/trade, finance, and real estate industries are likely to be impacted by higher waters, affecting the economic health of our counties, region, and state. Businesses, such as those closer to the coast, experience a loss in revenue if they have to temporarily or permanently close due to flooding. Their employees experience a loss in wages if they cannot get to work because of flooded roads.
• Flood Insurance rates are increasing in response to the growing risks of frequent flooding and storm surge.

Environment

• Higher waters lead to general changes in the chemistry and pH of bodies of water. These changes impact the entire ecosystem, starting with the smallest prey and moving up the food chain to large predators. Their numbers decrease as it becomes more challenging for prey to find food for survival. As available prey decreases, predators are more likely to compete for food and either change locations if possible or risk dying out.
• Seagrasses are essential plants found in coastal waters. They provide significant functions for coastal ecosystems, such as offering food, habitat, and nursery areas for many marine species. In our region, they provide food for manatees and housing for young fish. A positive feedback system involving adequate sunlight and seagrasses allows the plant to filter our waters. The more sunlight that penetrates the water and reaches the seagrass, the deeper it expands to further filter the water. However, seagrasses dieback when various pollutants and contaminants reduce water clarity and promote algae growth which reduces the amount of light reaching the seagrasses. The Indian River Lagoon is an extreme example of this.
• Sea-level rise impacts animals such as dolphins. Dolphins often move to shallow waters to escape noises and personal watercraft that cause injury. As waters rise, the availability of those shallow water environments decreases. When pollutants such as PCB and legacy contaminants increasingly accumulate in the water from the dry land, scientists observed that it shortens the lifespans of male dolphins and kills firstborn calves.

Health

• Damages caused by storm surges and flooding can cause accidents and injury to residents (including the risk of drowning), limit access to healthcare services, and increase mold exposure.
• Stormwater can cause flood damage and impact the quality of the water we use to eat and drink. For example, sewage can contaminate our drinking water supply.

Infrastructure

• When essential services experience damage to their infrastructures, such as healthcare facilities, shelters, emergency responses, and more, it disrupts their ability to respond to their residents' needs. Essential services also include human service providers that provide shelter, clothes, and food to their clients.
• Flooded roads, bridges, pathways, and damaged vehicles such as trains, buses, and cars impact people’s ability to get to work and school, access virtual services, or evacuate in emergencies.
• Floods can damage the structure of homes and appliances while encouraging the growth of mold and mildew.

Location

• Individuals living near the coast or along the waterfront experience the immediate impacts of higher waters. However, those in vulnerable and low-lying areas experience flooding, too, due to rainfall and storm surges.

National/General Resources

• Risk Factor: A free and easy online tool created by the First Street Foundation® to find your property’s risk from environmental threats such as flooding and wildfires.
• NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer: View sea-level rise and potential coastal flooding impact areas and relative depths of water.
• NOAA’s Sea Level Trends: View a map of sea-level trends measured by tide gauges.
• The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit’s Coastal Risk Screening Tool: Explore coastal flood risk and sea level rise projections for nearly any coastal location.

Florida Resources

• Florida Climate Center: The Florida Climate Center (FCC) is part of a three-tiered system that provides climate data and information for the United States.
• Florida Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool: This map viewer shows the effects of current and future flood risks related to infrastructure in Florida. The Sketch Tool provides a screening level view of potential flooding under various future scenarios. Learn more here.

According to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection and the Florida Coastal Management Program's Adaptation Planning Guidebook, there is a significant economic value to adapting to and planning for higher waters. A study by the National Institute of Building Sciences found that hazard mitigation saves $6 on average for every $1 spent on federal mitigation grants.

In Florida, ocean and coastal resources contribute around $18 billion annually to the economy and support over 228,000 jobs. As Florida’s number one industry, tourism attracts visitors to the state and the Suncoast region for water-based recreation and activities. Higher waters impact our waters and the people and wildlife that depend on them. Preventing potential losses and investing in the future saves money long term.

See how much a flood could cost you via this interactive site or read this fact sheet.

In May 2021, Senate Bill 1954 was signed into law to create a coordinated approach to Florida’s coastal and inland resiliency. It establishes the Resilient Florida Program to protect Florida’s inland waterways, coastlines, and shores, which are natural defenses against sea-level rise. This investment aims to prepare communities for the impacts of climate change, including sea-level rise, intensified storms, and flooding.

The Resilient Florida Program has available grants for counties, municipalities, water management districts, and more to address the impacts of flooding and sea-level rise. Eligible applicants can receive funding to plan for vulnerabilities by conducting vulnerability assessments and implementing projects for adaptation and mitigation. Funding for grants is scheduled to continue between 2022 and 2024. View grants awarded for the fiscal year 2021–2022 here.

By mandating cities and countries to conduct vulnerability assessments in the same manner and using the same data, the state plans to create a state assessment and plan.

Additionally, The Resilience Act established the Florida Flood Hub for Applied Research and Innovation for researchers to further study the effects of sea-level rise and other environmental issues.

For more information about this closed initiative, contact Initiative Support Coordinator Kiarra Louis at klouis@thepattersonfoundation.org.